Fossil Fuels Climate Advocacy Update #15 Overview: The COP Edition

This briefing contains an overview of the corporate lobbying detected by InfluenceMap related to fossil fuels for the month of November 2023. Released during COP28, it features new analysis on the advocacy efforts by fossil fuel companies in attendance.

See InfluenceMap’s COP28 Corporate Accountability Platform, a fact-checking resource on corporate attendees and common fossil fuel industry talking points, for additional COP28 content and analysis. This portal will be updated as the conference proceeds. InfluenceMap will be present at COP28 in Dubai, for any inquiries or requests regarding the conference, please contact faye.holder@influencemap.org

Persistent Opposition to Climate Policy and Fossil Fuel Support Among COP28 Industry Attendees

InfluenceMap’s COP28 Corporate Accountability Platform reveals that over 40 companies and industry associations related to the oil and gas sector are reported to present at the conference in Dubai. InfluenceMap data reveals that some of the companies and industry associations that are most active on climate policy have continued to advocate against policy pathways aligned with delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement in the past 12 months (see table below). This is either through advocacy pushing back against government climate policy proposals, or by promoting the continued role for fossil fuels in the energy mix.

Many of these companies have taken the opportunity to make high-level commitments on climate action during the COP summit. For example, on December 2, it transpired that a group of oil and gas companies had signed the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter. The charter is voluntary and includes a commitment from signatories to reduce their emissions but does not include any pledge to stop the development and production of fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the commitment and related messaging appears to conflict with the detailed lobbying activities undertaken by the companies throughout 2023.

All the companies in the table below apart from PetroChina have supported net zero by 2050. This analysis highlights the significant gap between the oil and gas sector high-level statements and PR on climate, and its detailed engagement with climate-related policy and regulation.

Much discussion at COP28 has focused on the treatment of fossil fuels. The EU will push for an “unconditional fossil fuel exit”, according to Politico, with 16 other nations supporting the complete phase-out of all fossil fuels. At the same time, there has been significant controversy surrounding the conference’s ties to the fossil fuel sector. In July 2023, COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber appeared to support the presence of the oil and gas industry at the conference, which has led to calls for transparency and accountability regarding how these entities shape climate policy and agendas.

During the event, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has caused further controversy by appearing to claim that there is no scientific basis for phasing out fossil fuels, referencing the need to also support sustainable development. InfluenceMap’s COP28 Corporate Accountability Platform covers this argument as part of its Fossil Fuel Narrative Fact Checker, highlighting the IPCC’s assessment that accelerated climate action – which includes a rapid reduction of the use of fossil fuels – is “critical” for sustainable development.

ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods has also used COP28 as an opportunity to promote the long-term role of fossil fuels, referencing the role of carbon capture and storage as justification for this. InfluenceMap’s new report on Corporate Policy Engagement on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) overviews a huge effort by oil and gas companies to set the global narrative on fossil fuels and CCS over the last couple of years. It finds 80% of all corporate advocacy on the topic is misaligned with Science-Based Policy guidance. The report also finds that 17 countries in the G20+UAE hold policy positions that appear to align with the oil and gas sector position's on the topic. InfluenceMap will continue to monitor corporate advocacy throughout COP28 on the Corporate Accountability Platform which will be updated as the conference proceeds.

Tracking a Year of Advocacy

Over the past year, InfluenceMap has written about the advocacy activities of the above-mentioned companies attending COP28, documenting their efforts to weaken, delay, and oppose Science-Based Policies globally. For example:

World Coal Association is Latest Fossil Fuel Association to Rebrand

Away from COP, at a November 21st press conference in Delhi, India, the former World Coal Association rebranded as FutureCoal: The Global Alliance for Sustainable Coal. CEO Michelle Manook stated that the change responded to a “call from coal and coal allied sectors to modernize, and unite under a common purpose”, and that “coal, and more specifically, a wider definition of abated coal solutions exists and will be needed in any energy transition”.

The recent rebranding efforts by fossil fuel industry associations globally reflect a consistent trend of either accentuating sustainability or distancing themselves from terminology linked to fossil fuels. Noteworthy instances include the transition of Offshore Energies UK, formerly known as Oil and Gas UK, Fuels Industry UK from its previous identity as the UK Petroleum Industry Association, and the Australian Energy Producers from its previous identity as the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA).

InfluenceMap also notes the strategy to "widen" the definition of fossil fuels. In December 2022, InfluenceMap released a report on the International Gas Union (IGU), a gas sector industry association. IGU’s strategy to "green" gas included widening the definition of gas to also include alternative gases, with non-fossil origins. The intention was to position gas - defined more broadly - as a necessary part of the solution and have a broader platform to engage in climate and energy policies.

Despite the rebrand, FutureCoal appears to have recently continued to advocate for the use of unabated coal (coal without the use of carbon, capture, and storage) in the global energy mix alongside abated coal, contrary to IPCC guidance:

The IPCC’s 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change report states that new investments in coal-fired electricity without CCS are inconsistent with limiting warming to 2°C or lower and that pathways limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C involve substantial reductions in fossil fuel consumption and a near elimination of coal use without CCS. In 1.5C pathways, coal decreases by 90%, and without CCS, this increases to 100%. For more information on this piece or InfluenceMap’s mining work, please contact_ ciara.ellis@influencemap.org

Australian Fossil Fuel Companies Advocate in Favor of Middle Arm Development, Emphasizing Support for Fossil Fuels

On September 5th 2023 the Senate established an inquiry into the controversial Middle Arm Industrial Precinct, a major energy, minerals and industrial development in Darwin Harbour, Northern Territory. The proposed development includes a focus on “low emissions” hydrocarbons, green hydrogen, advanced manufacturing, carbon capture and storage and minerals processing. However, it has been reported that the development will also be essential for future fossil gas investments in the Beetaloo Basin by facilitating exports. One background briefing to officials, released to the Guardian under freedom of information rules, stated that the development would ‘support a hub for activities such as gas production, minerals processing, hydrogen production and exporting gas’.

Subsequently, various entities from the fossil fuels sector, including companies and industry associations, engaged with the Senate inquiry. Their submissions, made public in November, not only expressed support for the Middle Arm project but also sought to underscore the significance of fossil gas in the broader energy mix:

The committee is scheduled to report back with findings and recommendations by April 30, 2024, and construction is slated to commence in 2026, subject to the necessary approvals.

Santos and Australian Energy Producers Advocate for Government Intervention in Climate Litigation

On November 15th, the Federal Court of Australia ordered Santos to halt construction on pipelines connected to the company’s Barrosa project. Both Santos and its industry association, the Australian Energy Producers, formerly the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, have responded by advocating for the government to intervene. This case against Santos was brought by traditional owners, on the grounds that the project would damage sacred sites and disrupt traditional practices.

In response, Santos CEO, Kevin Gallagher, was quoted in a November 15th news article stating that ‘the shrill voices of climate activists and politicians in affluent electorates will cost the country jobs and ultimately reduce living standards of average Australians if they succeed in blocking new gas projects’. Additionally, he urged the government to work with the industry and to not "pick winners’" The Australian Energy Producers also advocated for government action in a November 15th press release, that claimed the "economic and energy security of Australia and its valued international partners is being damaged" and called on the government to "fix the broken offshore approvals system". A final ruling is expected to be given in mid-January 2024. For more information on this piece or InfluenceMap’s Australia work, please contact tom.holen@influencemap.org

European Policymakers Agree to Include Methane Emissions from Imports

The final trilogue negotiations on the EU Methane Regulation saw European policymakers strike a deal on 15th November to include methane emissions from imported fossil fuels as part of the regulatory scope. The regulation also included provisions for the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of methane emissions, measures for leak detection and repair (LDAR), and a ban on routine venting and flaring ban from 2027.

The EU is dependent on imports for over 80% of its fossil gas consumption, and the attempts to include methane emissions from imported fossil fuels has received significant pushback from the oil and gas industry during the policy debate. InfluenceMap’s October 2023 Fossil Fuels Climate Advocacy Update detailed examples of advocacy from the oil and gas industry to European policymakers against the inclusion of imports.

To tackle methane emissions from imported fossil fuels, the regulation noted a three-step approach:

US EPA Announces New Methane Rule at COP

On December 2, at COP28, The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its final rule to tackle methane emissions and other pollutants from the oil and gas industry. It states that the rule leverages "the latest cost-effective, innovative technologies and proven solutions" that will achieve an approximately 80% reduction from the future methane emissions expected without the rule. BP provided comment to the EPA’s media release stating that it supports the finalization of the rule.

The finalization of the rule comes despite a majority unsupportive position from corporates with the EPA’s 2021 proposal and 2022 supplementary proposal. according to InfluenceMap’s methane platform policy tracker. This outlines how several oil, gas and utility associations and companies appeared to oppose or weaken the regulation. Full details can be found here.

Following the announcement of new methane regulations in the EU and the US, methane is set to continue to be a key topic of discussion at COP28. InfluenceMap will continue to track advocacy on global methane policies on our Methane Platform. For more information on this piece or InfluenceMap’s methane work, please contact vivek.parekh@influencemap.org