See coverage in The Guardian, Reuters, The Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Axios, edie, El Pais, The Conversation, La Vanguardia, The Irish Times, DeSmog.
The Carbon Majors database traces 1,421 GtCO2e of cumulative historical emissions from 1854 through 2022 to 122 industrial producers, the CO2 portion of which is equivalent to 72% of global fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions since 1751. Over 70% of these global CO2 emissions historically can be attributed to just 78 corporate and state producing entities.
Carbon Majors is a database of historic production data from 122 of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers. This data is used to quantify the direct production-linked operational emissions and emissions from the combustion of marketed products that can be attributed to these entities. Carbon Majors was originally released in 2013 by Richard Heede of the Climate Accountability Institute (CAI). InfluenceMap has since updated and released the database on a new website: carbonmajors.org.
The Carbon Majors dataset has played a pivotal role in holding fossil fuel producers to account for their climate-related impacts in academic, regulatory, and legal contexts. Examples include quantifying the contribution these entities have made to global surface temperature, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 rise; and establishing corporate accountability for climate-related human rights violations.
The database categorizes entities into three types: investor-owned companies, state-owned companies, and nation-states. Historically, investor-owned companies account for 31% of all emissions tracked by the database (440 GtCO2e), with Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP the three largest contributors respectively. State-owned companies are linked to 33% of the database total (465 GtCO2e), with Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and the National Iranian Oil Company being the largest contributors. Nation-states account for the remaining 36% (516 GtCO2e), with China's coal production and the Former Soviet Union the largest contributors.
In the seven years after the Paris Agreement was adopted at the end of 2015, 251 GtCO2e of emissions are linked to the 117 extant entities in the database, the CO2 portion of which is over 88% of total fossil fuel and cement emissions in this time. 80% of these global emissions from 2016 through 2022 can be traced to just 57 corporate and state producing entities. During this period, nation-state producers account for 38% of emissions in the database, while state-owned entities account for 37% and investor-owned companies for 25%.
The Carbon Majors database finds that most state- and investor-owned companies have expanded their production operations since the Paris Agreement. 58 out of the 100 companies were linked to higher emissions in the seven years after the Paris Agreement than in the same period before. This increase is most pronounced in Asia, where 13 out of 15 (87%) assessed companies are connected to higher emissions in 2016–2022 than in 2009–2015, and in the Middle East, where this number is 7 out of 10 companies (70%). In Europe, 13 of 23 companies (57%), in South America, 3 of 5 (60%) companies, and in Australia, 3 out of 4 (75%) companies were linked to increased emissions, as were 3 of 6 (50%) African companies. North America is the only region where a minority of companies, 16 of 37 (43%), were linked to rising emissions.
Analysis of the Carbon Majors data shows that there was a gradual shift in coal supply in the seven-year period after the Paris Agreement from investor-owned companies to state-controlled entities. According to the IEA, global coal consumption increased by almost 8% from 2015 to 2022, reaching an all-time high of 8.3 billion tonnes in 2022. This research finds that from 2015 to 2022, CO2e emissions linked to investor-owned coal production decreased by 28%, while CO2e emissions linked to state-owned companies' and nation-states' coal production increased by 29% and 19%, respectively.
Richard Heede's landmark Carbon Majors research transformed the landscape of climate accountability by using the fossil fuel industry's own reported production and operation figures to calculate and expose the true scale of its role in the climate crisis. By updating and extending that research—and making it more widely accessible and usable for researchers, decisionmakers, and litigators alike—InfluenceMap's new Carbon Majors database will transform that landscape yet again. The Carbon Majors database makes it dramatically easier to document, calculate, and visually demonstrate the growing chasm between the urgent demands of climate reality and the continued reckless and intentional growth of oil and gas production. Critically, it enables us to track changes in corporate behavior and production across discrete and clearly defined timescales that will be relevant to investors, investigators, and litigators alike. It is a vital and powerful new tool in the work toward climate action and climate accountability.
The Carbon Majors research shows us exactly who is responsible for the lethal heat, extreme weather, and air pollution that is threatening lives and wreaking havoc on our oceans and forests. These companies have made billions of dollars in profits while denying the problem and delaying and obstructing climate policy. They are spending millions on advertising campaigns about being part of a sustainable solution, all the while continuing to invest in more fossil fuel extraction. These findings emphasize that, more than ever, we need our governments to stand up to these companies, and we need new international cooperation through a Fossil Fuel Treaty to end the expansion of fossil fuels and ensure a truly just transition.
The Carbon Majors database highlights just how deeply entangled our economies and societies are with fossil fuels. The good news is that a new paradigm is emerging. Ahead of COP28, hundreds of companies came together to call for the phase out of fossil fuels. We Mean Business Coalition's Fossil to Clean campaign has shown that a rapid transition away from fossil fuels is possible and makes good business sense. As that demand signal continues to grow louder, those most exposed to the fossil fuel industry are going to be left behind.
